EPOCH marked the first time that GH dropsondes were assimilated in real-time into NOAA’s GFS forecast model. Early results show that assimilating dropsonde data significantly increases skill in predicting intensity change, which is game changing since the National Hurricane Center intensity error trend has remained virtually unchanged, particularly at 24 hours, over the last 25 years. The results from the past few years suggest that a paradigm shift of sampling the environment with a high-altitude, long-duration UAS like the GH that is capable of deploying up to 90 dropsondes ahead of and over the top of a developing or strengthening tropical cyclone could produce the best return on hurricane forecast predictions in subsequent years. Recommendations for the future, including lessons learned and the potential for R2O transition will be discussed.

 

Authors
Amber E Emory - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Gary A Wick - NOAA Boulder
Jason P Dunion - University of Miami supporting NOAA
Matthew McLinden - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Mathias M Schreier - NASA JPL
Peter Black - Cherokee Nation supporting NOAA UAS Program
Robbie E Hood - Director, NOAA UAS Program
Jason Sippel - NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Vijay Tallapragada-  NOAA National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center